In August 2022, Kansas voters upended poll data and predictions when they rejected a ballot measure that would have allowed lawmakers to tighten abortion restrictions or ban the procedure outright.
It’s now a case study of sorts of how so-called red state voters can defy conventional wisdom by supporting progressive measures, while repeatedly electing conservative lawmakers who explicitly reject them.
A recent survey of registered voters in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska shows examples of this contradiction on several issues. Republicans comfortably control the legislatures in the four states surveyed. All but Kansas have Republican governors.
The poll showed voter attitudes that are not consistent with how those elected officials have governed.
“I actually think it’s something that’s happening nationally where —state by state—we see this incredible polarization, where politicians and the things that they say actually do not represent their constituency at all,” said Lina-Maria Murillo, an assistant professor at the University of Iowa.
The Midwest Newsroom partnered with Emerson College Polling to conduct surveys of registered voters in between Sept. 26 and Oct. 2.
The polling included questions about issues on Nov. 5 ballots in each state in addition to topics that have become prominent features of public discourse, like restrictions on reading materials in schools and libraries. A Missouri law enacted in 2022 makes it a crime to give students books that contain sexually explicit material. Now, lawmakers in the four states surveyed have weighed or are weighing similar legislation. The survey revealed that more than half the voters in the four-state survey oppose book bans.
The Midwest Newsroom asked political experts in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska for their insights about why such divides persist. Their explanations fell into five main themes:
Social issues are not always voters’ top priority
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and many advocacy organizations call reproductive rights a vitally important issue in this election. But some voters who favor abortion rights or other progressive views might weigh different parts of a candidate’s platform more heavily and vote Republican as a result.
Matt Harris, an associate professor of political science at Park University in Parkville, Missouri, described the attitude: “(A voter can say) ‘I may be more liberal on these issues, but the issues that decide my vote are immigration or a general sense that the economy isn’t good.’ And so those things may tend to push the vote even while people express more liberal positions.”
The phenomenon could appear this fall in Iowa, where Republican legislative majorities have expanded in every election since 2016. Voters will be electing lawmakers for the first time since Republicans enacted a law that makes almost all abortions illegal in the state. The Emerson College poll for The Midwest Newsroom found that 56% of Iowans say the law is too strict.
Voters may choose parties over policies
Voting for a Democrat or a Republican because it is socially acceptable in a person’s circles might carry more weight than campaign promises and public stances. “Tribalism” is a word often employed to explain this dynamic of American politics.
“People don’t want to have to be put in the position of voting for the other team,” said Murillo. “So, even if five out of the seven things that their party is saying they may not fully agree with, they’re going to vote because that’s the only option that they’ve been given.”
Habits play a role, too.
“In some cases, it’s more than just an issue thing. It’s that attachment to a party, that attachment to a brand that a party represents,” Harris said.
Nebraska could be testing this premise in its U.S. Senate election. Republican Deb Fischer is the incumbent. Nebraskans have not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2006. Democrats didn’t field a candidate against Fischer this year but Dan Osborn, running as an independent, trails her only narrowly in recent polling. This could make a difference if enough voters who would recoil at supporting a Democrat find Osborn acceptable.
Policy preference is not ‘one size fits all’
Unlike voting for a candidate whose positions are clearly articulated, ballot language for proposed legislation often does not include partisan cues, and that difference can help produce unexpected results, said Dona-Gene Barton, associate professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
“The Nebraska electorate tends to be more conservative, and says that it endorses these conservative policy preferences, but then when you put these things on the ballot, they don’t exactly match what you would expect from the state,” Barton said.
The Midwest Newsroom/Emerson College poll found most Nebraskans supporting both Nov. 5 ballot measures on abortion, even though one would expand abortion rights and one would restrict them. If both get more than 50% of votes, the measure receiving the most votes will take effect. Barton said that the wording might confuse some residents and that some research shows voters have some bias toward voting “yes” when feasible.
Barton said she knows a voter who supports abortion rights but just voted “yes” to both ballot measures, even though they’re in opposition.
Primaries can produce extremes
Voters who might prefer a Republican candidate who is socially moderate could be out of luck if they don’t show up for primary elections, which often attract partisans with deeply held views. That can ultimately create a legislature more disposed to extremes than the electorate is.
Kansas Republican legislators have long opposed legalizing marijuana of any kind in the state, but the people who elected them have different views.
“If medical marijuana was on a Kansas ballot, it would pass easily,” said Bob Beatty, professor and chair of political science at Washburn University in Topeka, Kansas.
Legislators have not advanced any such proposal. The Midwest Newsroom/Emerson College poll found 73% of Kansans support legal medical marijuana. Legal recreational use of marijuana was also a winner, with 55% in favor.
A special legislative committee is hosting informational hearings on medical marijuana this month, but it’s not clear what kind of legislation it might recommend for the next session, if any.
"So then," Beatty said. "The larger question is, ‘Well, my goodness, in a democracy, how do the voters put up with this?'"
Voters like to send incumbents back to office
In all four states surveyed, over 50% of poll respondents said their elected officials were mostly influenced by their own best interests, instead of the best interests of the state. Yet career lawmakers are a common phenomenon, with incumbents easily defeating challengers.Voters like to send incumbents back to office
In all four states surveyed, over 50% of poll respondents said their elected officials were mostly influenced by their own best interests, instead of the best interests of the state. Yet career lawmakers are a common phenomenon, with incumbents easily defeating challengers.
“People are like, ‘Oh, I don’t like Congress,’ but we see incumbents get reelected over and over again,” said Harris, the professor at Park University in Missouri. This pattern could help incumbents even if their voting records in office contradict what the electorate professes to be important issues.
Another example: A ballot measure before Missouri voters would increase the minimum wage and require paid sick leave. The current minimum wage is too low, 52% of Midwest Newsroom/Emerson College poll respondents said. Voters have been tussling with lawmakers over this for a decade. In 2017, in response to St. Louis raising its minimum wage to $10 an hour, the Missouri Legislature passed a bill saying no city can exceed the state minimum wage of $7.70.
“It’s sort of paradoxical,” Harris said, “Where it’s almost like, ‘Well, these politicians are bad, but not mine, not the one that I’m going to vote for again and again.’”
