‘We’re not even seeing weeds germinate': Nebraska ag operations getting shuffled as exceptional drought doubles

Ag producers in western and central Nebraska are dealing with pastures that feel more like a desert landscape as the historic 2026 drought intensifies. A clear line is beginning to develop in the middle of the state, showing contrasting conditions between the western two-thirds of the state and eastern Nebraska.

In the National Drought Mitigation Center’s weekly update Thursday, “exceptional” drought – the worst level of the center’s drought classification – has doubled. In the last week of April, the researchers identified 2% of Nebraska land they believed was showing “exceptional” levels of drought. Now, a little more than 4% is in that range, with drought deepening across Sioux, Scotts Bluff, Banner, Box Butte, Morrill, Cheyenne, Garden and Deuel counties. A new area of “exceptional” drought has developed in Lincoln, Dawson, Frontier and Gosper counties, as well.

According to the center’s classification system, exceptional, or D4-level drought, is the most severe rating and would include conditions that “would only be expected to occur once or twice within a 100-year period.” The last time Nebraska experienced an “exceptional” drought was in January 2024.

Jake Miller, the owner of 7M Ranch in the southwestern Nebraska county of Hitchcock, said he’s noticed the wild swings in weather.

“I graduated from college in 2013 and came home and took over my grandpa’s part of the operation, but when I was a little kid, it seemed like droughts only came every 15 to 20 years, and then as we’ve gotten into the 2000s, they’re coming about every 10 years. Operating for 13 years now – this will be the third one I’ve seen.”

He said pastures in western Nebraska are so dry, it’s difficult to keep cattle properly fed. He just got a load of seed Thursday, but he said he probably won’t plant anything on his dryland acres until moisture comes.

“We’re not even seeing weeds germinate out in the fields unless it’s been watered with irrigation,” Miller said. “They’ve got them going but that’s about the only extent of anything green trying to come on right now.”

And that’s affecting his ranch’s cattle operations, which heavily depend on green pastures for forage. He runs cow-calf pairs and yearlings year-round, and while he keeps some feed on hand, his cattle typically graze on the pastures throughout the year.

“Right now, we’ve got them out on pasture,” Miller said. “If things don’t start to green up here, we’re probably going to need to supplement protein just to help them digest all of that dry fiber.”

On top of providing more feed, his ranch is also altering operations to get his cattle to slaughter earlier this year – a choice that many ranchers had to make in 2022, when a historic drought gripped the Great Plains. Hay was in little supply, cattle were dying from heat in the pastures, and slaughterhouses were backlogged in processing cattle that couldn’t roam the dead pastures. The after-effects of that drought are still being felt today with high beef prices.

“We had de-stocked heavily in ‘22 for that drought, and we were finally just kind of getting built back up this year. We have sent most of our yearlings off. We’ve got some calves that were born last fall. We typically don’t wean those until the end of June, but we weaned them two weeks ago,” Miller said.

Other ag producers – and even nearby municipalities – are bracing for a hot and dry summer ahead. McCook leaders have issued a warning about potential water restrictions to come. In an announcement to residents last week, city leaders wrote that residents and businesses should “take proactive steps to reduce water usage.”

Irrigation districts have notified ag producers early this year that water supply in ditches will be considerably lower over the next few months.

“Our water levels are critically low this year, and we are anticipating a very short water season,” Kevin Adams wrote last week to Farmers Irrigation District (FID) customers near Scottsbluff. “When water gets turned on, we ask all landowners to be mindful of their water usage as we navigate this challenging period.”

The FID Board of Directors is considering borrowing water from a nearby water system, but it would have to be purchased and repaid. Adams explained that using 10,000 acre-feet of water at $4 an acre would cost the district $40,000. Some irrigation districts are opting not to purchase extra water since they wouldn’t be able to afford it. FID leaders said they would continue to monitor the need and discuss potential options if the need for more water rises to that level.

As irrigation districts prepare to run water, some operators are running into issues clearing out all the windswept debris.

“It’s been a challenge right out of the gate this year,” the Frenchman-Cambridge Irrigation District posted on social media. “Our crews are dealing with a heavy buildup of weeds, corn shucks, and other debris that collected over the off-season. Normally, we would burn off sections of the canal to help clean things up and prepare for water delivery — but ongoing drought conditions have made that impossible this year.”