Nebraska farmers and ranchers are preparing for a potentially difficult summer as the state experiences its third-warmest winter on record, according to the National Weather Service. The two warmest winters were in 1931 and 1934, which occurred at the beginning of the Dust Bowl in the U.S.
Bill Taylor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in North Platte, said the warm weather stems from a La Niña weather pattern. It starts in the Pacific Ocean and occurs every three to five years. The weather pattern causes the northern U.S. and Canada to experience colder, snowier weather conditions and creates dry and warm conditions in the southwestern U.S.
Taylor said that while it's not unexpected, the dry weather could become a problem.
“It’s not unusual to have a dry winter,” Taylor said. “But if we don't start receiving some beneficial precipitation, especially as we head into this month and April and May especially, then we’ll have some concerns about expanding drought.”
For the western half of the state, this winter has been even more extreme with its warmest winter ever recorded.
In its update Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor team said drought deepened in the U.S. for the fifth week in a row, with much of that increase in Nebraska. The Panhandle had been experiencing severe drought, but in the Thursday update, climatologists reported drier conditions in central and eastern Nebraska. Severe drought has now developed in northeastern Nebraska.
In a Wednesday LinkedIn post, Eric Hunt, a University of Nebraska-Lincoln agricultural meteorologist, said this past fall and winter had produced the largest expansion of drought during the period in the history of UNL’s Drought Monitor. On Oct. 1, only 9.1% of the state was in drought. As of Feb. 24, 77% of the state was in drought. That 67.9 percentage point increase shattered the old record of 51.1 percentage points during the same period in 2021-22.
“Whether or not this qualifies as a rare winter flash drought, it seems probable that we will see increased incidents of drought expanding in this region of the country as our winters grow more mild overall,” Hunt said in the post.
Farmers and ranchers are among those most concerned about the expanding drought. Drought conditions can affect forage growth, water availability and pasture quality.
Aaron Berger, a beef systems extension coordinator at UNL, said that while warm weather is good for cattle in the winter, it could cause problems in the summer.
“Ranchers are dependent on precipitation,” Berger said. “The warm, dry conditions are currently setting up a scenario that’s very concerning for ranchers to provide grazing for the summer ahead. That's foundational for a ranch business to be able to be successful.”
Harvesting forage from grasslands is a cost-effective way to feed cows, and farmers use tools like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index to monitor forage quality and vegetation across pastures. Without high-quality grass production for cattle, farmers may have to purchase harvested feed, ship cattle to a location that’s not experiencing as much drought or sell off their cattle if needed.
Small farming operations that rely on pasture-based systems have limited resources to offset the effects of the drought, while larger operations have more resources to invest in solutions, though they can both face obstacles during droughts.
“The next three months are really critical for precipitation and moisture to grow grass for grazing in the summer,” Berger said.
Taylor said that Nebraska's unusual weather this winter is all a part of its climate.
“It’s a land of extremes. Some years are very wet; some years are very dry. Drought is part of the climate here.”