Measure of rural Mid-America economy hits lowest level since May 2020

A monthly economic index compiled by a Creighton University professor says the rural Mid-America economy is at its worst in five years.

The Rural Mainstreet Index, a metric based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs across a 10-state region, fell to 34.6 in October, down from 38.5 in September. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with 50 representing growth neutral.

Ernie Goss, an economics professor at Creighton University who helped create the index, said low grain prices and high tariffs are hurting the region’s economic activity.

“A lot of farmers are below break even in terms of their income there on grain,” he said. “Much better for the livestock producers, but nonetheless, was not as much as we'd like to see.”

However, Nebraska’s year-to-date exports on agricultural goods and livestock are up by nearly 50%, according to data from the International Trade Association. That’s despite a sharp decline in exports to China, which dropped 92.4% in the last year.

Goss said Nebraska’s strong livestock industry could be to thank at a time when most other states saw exports drop over the last year,

“That was surprising, and it may have to do with the products that Nebraska farmers produce, which is a lot of beef,” he said.

The survey of rural bank CEOs also found that support for President Donald Trump’s policies surrounding international trade remain high.

Approximately 72% of bankers said Trump’s imposition of tariffs on China are “about right.”

“I'm an economist, and I was surprised with that,” Goss said. “It's really caused some real pain for the farmers out there, in my judgment.”

Trump has also floated the idea of providing a $10 billion economic aid package for farmers, something that nearly 85% of bankers said they would support.