Tyson plant closure hindered voter turnout in Dawson County primary election, data suggests

The closing of a Tyson Foods plant in Lexington earlier this year seems to have significantly impacted voter turnout. Compared to the last midterm primary election in 2022, about half as many voters cast a ballot in Dawson County on Tuesday. More than 4,600 ballots were filled out in 2022, and fewer than 2,400 this year. That’s a 48% dip.

About 25% of the county’s workforce was laid off when Tyson Foods closed in January. That’s according to Josie Gatti Schafer with the University of Nebraska Omaha’s Center for Public Affairs Research. With family members of plant workers moving too, another quarter of the workforce could be lost.

“I think it's really fair to say that we might expect about 50% of the entire workforce, or 50% of the population, left as a result of those 3,000 jobs going away,” Gatti Schafer said. “So that, to me, really lines up — in terms of the voter turnout data.”

That large of a loss in workers is rare, Gatti Schafer said.

"There are very few examples of this anywhere where it was that significant a portion of the entire workforce,” Gatti Schafer said.

In general, jobs with livable wages drive population change.

“Jobs tend to be the primary reason that someone would move, especially folks in a manufacturing job where having that annual income is so important,” Gatti Schafer said. “So, without replacements for those jobs of equal wages and equal hours, folks are going to have to leave the area.”

The county has a large foreign-born population, she said. Still, U.S.-born and naturalized voters in the Lexington-area may be feeling abandoned, Gatti Schafer said.

“It could be a larger civic engagement issue too, right? Even people in that community that are staying in that community and can vote and are more disengaged than ever, as they're sort of grappling with economic impacts of losing that workforce,” Gatti Schafer said. “Because that workforce shopped, they went out to eat.”

From 2022 to this year, Dawson County turnout dropped from about 34% of registered voters to less than 19%. Statewide voting on Tuesday was lower than projections at around 27%, which was the lowest in eight years.

Dawson County clerk Michaela Arndt told Nebraska Public Media News in an email that turnout was low in Dawson County. Arndt said people not hitting the polls was a theme across the state on Tuesday, adding that more races were contested in the 2022 primaries, which may have contributed to higher turnout then.

Gatti Schafer added that upcoming census data and population estimates will give another hint as to how much of an impact the closure will have on the city and county population.