These state legislative races could shape the Unicameral next year

With less than a week before the election, Nebraska Public Media's Dale Johnson spoke with Nebraska Public Media reporter Brian Beach to learn more about how the results of state legislature races could impact the balance of power in the Unicameral in 2025.

Dale Johnson: Nebraska's unicameral is officially nonpartisan. So, what does this balance of power between ideologies mean in a legislative context, Brian?

Brian Beach: Dale, you're right that the legislature in Nebraska is nonpartisan, and that means you're not going to get these majority and minority leaders and committee assignments that way. But there is still a benefit to having a filibuster-proof majority in your coalition. That would be having two thirds or 33 votes out of the 49 in the legislature, and that comes up a lot when we look at some really contentious social topics like abortion or transgender medical care, or even the electoral college vote allocation. Those are things where Republicans, or at least senators that are affiliated with the Republican Party, when they have that two thirds majority, they're able to sort of force their will in ways that they wouldn't without that majority.

Johnson: In that term I used, the balance of power theoretically, how did that look this past legislative session?

Beach: So in this past legislative session, there were technically 33 Republicans after Senator Mike McDonnell switched parties. He'd previously been elected as a Democrat. But even though he switched parties, his views on abortion, transgender medical care and the electoral vote allocation, none of those really changed. So essentially, Republicans were working with a very, very slim majority, but it wasn't really one that they were able to do a lot with, because all it took was one dissenting vote and their whole plan would fall apart.

Johnson: Will that change in 2025 when the session begins in January?

Beach: Definitely, there will be some new senators. There will be at least 15 new senators based on term limits. Once a senator has two four-year terms completed, they are ineligible to run for reelection. And so we know there will be a change of faces. The change of parties? We don't know for sure, but a few seats that we know will flip, Lynn Walz, a Democrat representing Dodge County in Fremont, she was a Democrat, but right now there are two Republicans running for that seat in the general so that's a for sure flip. And it's also likely that Mike McDonnell's seat in South Omaha will flip to a Dem. It's Margo Juarez versus Gilbert Ayala, a Republican. But that seat is more Democratic voters. So those two are likely to cancel each other out.

Johnson: Let's take a step back and look at the entire state. What are some of the most important races that could decide that balance of power term that I've used in 2025?

Beach: In District 3, that was formerly Carol Blood’s seat, she's running for Congress now, but that features Victor Rountree, a Democrat, versus Felix Ungerman, a Republican. And then out in Grand Island, in District 35 we have Dan Quick, a Democrat versus the incumbent Republican, Ray Aguilar. And then in District 49 Jen Day, the incumbent Democrat, is taking on Bob Andersen, a challenging Republican. And those three races each have the most money spent in total from both candidates, or at least most fundraising from those final two, and each of them also had very close primary elections. Ungerman was 53% to Rountree’s 47 in the primary. Quick won his primary by 92 total votes. And then in District 49, it was a three-way primary that Day won with 43%, but the other two challengers were both Republicans. So it's likely that all three of those races are really important, especially for Dems to keep or pick up seats in if they want to avoid a Republican supermajority.

Johnson: What other trends do you see in races that are interesting to you?

Beach: So this year, there are three different general elections that feature candidates who are nonpartisan. Now all of them are technically nonpartisan, but Nick Batter, Allison Heimes and Nikki Behmer Popp each are running on being independent, nonpartisan platforms, whereas they have party backed opponents. And so it's interesting to see three of those. There are already - Senator Megan Hunt is an independent, so there are some people in the legislature who are not backed by parties specifically. But it's interesting to see the number of that rise. It also kind of shows in the Senate race as well. And the other piece is that in a lot of the western Nebraska races are out in the rural 3rd District. You're seeing a lot of NEGOP endorsed candidates, and the NEGOP has more of a populist spirit, that are going up against more establishment candidates that are endorsed by Ricketts, Fisher, and Flood.

Johnson: Brian Beach, joining us from the newsroom. He's our political expert coming out of the Nebraska Public Media newsroom. I'm Dale Johnson on Nebraska Public Media.