Results for the District 2 primary election could redefine an urban Nebraska Republican

Congressman Don Bacon has represented Nebraska’s second congressional district for seven years. In the primary elections, he will be challenged by businessman Dan Frei.

Although it’s a district that is often referred to as a purple dot in national general elections, the state’s geographically smallest district has a different story for its representation in the U.S House. That position has primarily been held by Republicans. District 2 includes Omaha and the metro area.

“In Omaha, [Republicans are] probably still going to win. But you have to be smarter about it and be a little more cautious,” said Ross Benes, author of Rural Rebellion: How Nebraska Became a Republican Stronghold.

In his book, Benes argued starting around 1995, the state has slowly moved from being more politically moderate to leaning to the right both in national representation and state level. If he could add a chapter now, after the 2021 publication, he said he’d talk more about the infighting he has observed within Nebraska’s Republican Party starting after former Gov. Pete Ricketts left the role.

Benes said the party was more unified under Ricketts’ tenure but started visibly branching apart during the 2022 primary gubernatorial election between current Gov. Jim Pillen and his opponent Charles Herbster—who received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

Don Bacon and Dan Frei share several viewpoints within their platforms. On their websites, they address similar policies surrounding national security, immigration reform and economic development. But the candidates said they don’t see many similarities between them at all.

“Between myself and Don? I think we’re both about the same age. Other than that, from a political perspective, not much,” Frei said.

Frei narrowly lost to Republican Lee Terry in the 2014 District 2 primary election with 47.1% of the vote. In 2016, Bacon replaced former Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford and has held the position since. Bacon said the Freedom Caucus, a highly conservative group in Congress, doesn’t accurately represent his party. But his opponent has said if elected, he would join it.

“I think where we’re really different is our temperament. I believe in being a happy warrior,” Bacon said about differences with Frei. “I know you get more with a smile and enthusiasm than anger.”

And style is something that could be important for District 2 voters, according to Benes. He said it’s not so much specific policy Republican voters will be supporting, rather how the candidates go about getting that policy action done.

“I bet on nine out of 10 issues, [Bacon and Frei] are probably the same. It’s more the style is different between them,” Benes said.

District 2 spans from the Omaha-metro area in Douglas County and parts of Sarpy and Saunders Counties. Benes said it’s also arguably the most competitive district between the two major political parties. Only Republicans have represented District 1 since the late 1960s and District 3 since the early 1960s. And within those districts, the margin of victory for Republicans is generally much larger than in the second congressional district.

Bryant Moy, a faculty fellow at the Center for Data Science and a visiting assistant professor in the Department of Politics at New York University, published research about the political behaviors of American voters in rural and urban areas. Ultimately, Moy said, political geography matters. And in the places where urban meets rural provide a unique phenomenon.

“Midsize cities are more likely to be politically mixed because you’re pulling from both the urban and rural subsets of the community,” he said.

Moy said although geography is one element in determining political behavior, there are other compositional characteristics to factor in, including race, socio-economic background and age.

His research found rural voters tend to lean Republican and urban voters Democratic. The farther they are from cities, the more conservative and the less likely they will be exposed to differing views. But since Omaha is a city where many of the urban residents have rural roots, its voters are somewhere in between. So, Moy said candidates have to keep a balance in earning their votes.

“The traditional story that political scientists would tell is that you would moderate. When you have two groups that you’re trying to court at the same time, it’s the moderate stances, it’s the moderate positions that will get more votes,” he said.

But Benes said Omaha is even more unique as an urban area.

“The conservatism doesn’t seem to be eroding, even though more of the state’s population lives in cities now than they did before,” he said. “But even the people who live in cities in Nebraska often have a rural connection. Many of them have migrated from small towns.”

The branching off of the candidates’ definitions of a Nebraska Republican could redefine the 405,227 registered voters in district 2. Bacon views Nebraska Republicans as what he calls “mavericks”—they have a history of toeing party lines.

“I'm a Christian, I’m an American, then I’m a Republican. Because sometimes our party doesn’t get it right. I would prefer to speak the truth and try to do the right thing versus be totally loyal to my party,” Bacon said.

Frei said all Republicans within the party are the same.

“I don’t think it really can be defined as district one, two or three or not even a Nebraska Republican,” Frei said. “It’s anybody that is concerned and wants the government to either serve their needs are just stay out of their lives.”

Bacon received endorsements from Gov. Jim Pillen and other leaders within the party. He initially had the endorsement of the Douglas County GOP, but after a decision to switch, Frei now has each county’s endorsement as well as the state party’s.

But Ross Benes, author of that book Rural Rebellion, said ultimately, the voters will define what a District 2 Republican should be.

“Their party affiliation has been trending toward Republicanism, and they have been supportive of Republicans going further to the right, but on individual issues, they often will support things that their party doesn’t support,” Benes said. “The way they feel about things is more complicated than a binary option on a ballot.”

Some polls currently show Bacon in the lead with a small margin of voters undecided heading into the primary election on Tuesday. The winner of this primary election with likely run against Democratic candidate Tony Vargas, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary election.