Republicans set to retain supermajority in Unicameral

Republicans are set to retain their supermajority in the Unicameral after flipping two seats previously held by Democrats.

The legislature is officially nonpartisan, but the party affiliations of senators have historically had implications on issues like abortion, gender-affirming care and Nebraska’s electoral vote allocation.

For example, in May 2023, the Let Them Grow Act and Preborn Child Protection Act, which banned most abortions after 12 weeks and added restrictions on gender-affirming care for minors, passed with 33 votes.

That was just enough to overcome a filibuster, which requires two-thirds of the legislature.

Of those 33 votes, 32 came from registered Republicans, while the other came from Sen. Mike McDonnell, a socially conservative Democrat who announced he was switching parties to become a Republican in April 2024.

The partisan balance of the legislature could also have implications for future presidential elections in the state.

A Republican attempt to change the way Nebraska allocates its electoral votes back to a winner-take-all system came up short in 2024, but another Republican supermajority could bring the debate back to the forefront for the 2028 Presidential race.

Republicans will likely have 33 senators in the 49-member Unicameral again in 2024, which is exactly enough to override a filibuster.

However, that does not guarantee that Republicans will be able to pass whatever they want. All it takes is one defection from within party ranks to give the opposition enough votes to filibuster and block a bill from passing.

Even though the partisan makeup will be similar, the faces in Unicameral that convenes next January will look very different from the one that adjourned in August.

Two senators – Julie Slama and Fred Meyer – declined to run for additional terms, while 13 senators have served two consecutive four-year terms, making them ineligible to run for office again.

With one incumbent losing her bid for reelection, 16 new senators are set to take office in January.

Republican to Democrat Flips (2):

District 5, South Omaha: Margo Juarez (D) vs. Gilbert Ayala (R)

Juarez defeated Ayala by around 15 points in a district that leans Democratic.

This district was previously held by Sen. Mike McDonnell, who was elected as a Democrat before joining the Republican Party a month before the end of his final regular legislative session. Juarez narrowly won her three-way primary, which included two Democrats and Ayala, a Republican.

According to the latest campaign finance filings from the Nebraska Accountability and Disclosure Commission, Juarez also held a significant advantage in fundraising.

District 35, Grand Island: Ray Aguilar (R, inc.) vs. Dan Quick (D)

Quick won a narrow race over Aguilar that came down to fewer than 200 votes.

Aguilar, who is in the midst of his second stint serving in the legislature after term limits forced him out in 2009, faced a challenger also hoping to serve discontinuous terms in the Unicameral. Quick held the District 35 seat from 2017 through 2021, and left the legislature after Aguilar defeated Quick in 2020 with 53.6% of the vote. In the 2024 election cycle, Quick raised more than $250,000, while Aguilar raised just over $165,000.

Democrat to Republican Flips (2):

District 15, Fremont area: Dave Wordekemper (R) Roxie Kracl (R)

Wordekemper defeated Kracl with just shy of 53% of the vote in one of several close legislative races across the state.

Current State Sen. Lynne Walz, a Democrat, has been term limited, and the two remaining candidates in the general election were both Republicans, guaranteeing that this seat would flip parties. Wordekemper won the primary with 44% of the vote and is backed by the Nebraska Association of Public Employees and the Nebraska State AFL-CIO. Kracl had the support of Senator Pete Ricketts, Congressman Mike Flood and the Nebraska Republican Party. Kracl also had a slight advantage in fundraising, but both candidates raised more than $150,000.

District 49, Sarpy County: Jen Day (D, inc.) vs. Bob Andersen (D)

Jen Day was unable to hold onto her seat in a Republican-plurality district, as Andersen won by just over 4%.

In 2020, Day defeated incumbent Andrew La Grone by 1% and she won the 2024 primary with 43% of the vote. The remaining votes went toward Andersen and a second Republican, giving Republicans a majority of votes in the primary. Day outraised Andersen by nearly $100,000 and had the support of the Nebraska State Education Association and the Nebraska State AFL-CIO. Andersen is backed by Pillen and the Nebraska Farm Bureau.

Democratic Holds (7):

District 3, West Bellevue: Felix Ungerman (R) vs. Victor Rountree (D)

Rountree retained the seat for his party, defeating Ungerman with just over 50.6% of the vote in what looked to be one of the toughest holds for Democrats.

Ungerman and Rountree were both running to replace Democrat Carol Blood, who was term-limited out after serving for eight years in the Unicameral. Ungerman, a Republican, won the head-to-head primary in May with 53% of the vote.

As of November 4, the race featured the highest total reported fundraising amount from the general election candidates. Rountree raised slightly more, but both candidates raised more than $225,000 for their campaigns. In 2020, Blood won her District 3 election by 160 votes, accounting for less than 1% of the total.

District 7, Southeast Omaha: Dunixi Guereca (D) vs. Tim Pendrell (D)

Guereca defeated Pendrell by around 15%.

In the only legislative race to feature two Democrats, Guereca, who won the May primary, held a significant fundraising advantage and an endorsement from Democratic Congressional candidate Tony Vargas. Pendrell has the endorsement of the Nebraska Farm Bureau.

District 9, Midtown Omaha: John Cavanaugh (D, inc.) vs. Julia Palzer (R)

Cavanaugh won a second term in office by defeating Palzer with more than 70% of the vote.

Cavanaugh, who is running for his second his second term in the Unicameral, more than doubled the vote total of his opponent in the primary and has raised nearly $40,000 more than Palzer. Palzer has endorsements from Omaha mayor Jean Stothert and Douglas County Sheriff Aaron Hanson.

District 11, North Omaha: Terrell McKinney (D, inc.)

McKinney won a three-way primary in May by four votes, with longtime Nebraska state senator Ernie Chambers coming in second and advancing to the general election. However, Chambers dropped out of the race in July, leaving McKinney without an opponent.

District 13, Northeast Omaha: Nick Batter (I) vs. Ashlei Spivey (D)

Unofficial vote totals show Spivey leading Batter by 41 votes, but since the race is so close, an automatic recount is underway.

Batter and Spivey are running to represent a seat currently held by Democrat Sen. Justin Wayne, who was unopposed in the 2020 election. Batter won a crowded primary with 38% of the vote, while Spivey finished in second with 24% to advance to the general. Spivey has the support of the Nebraska Democratic Party, but Batter was endorsed by the third-place primary challenger Tracy Hightower-Henne, another Democrat. Batter and Spivey have each raised more than $200,000, though Spivey has a slim lead in fundraising.

District 27, Southwest Lincoln: Jason Prokop (D) vs. Dawn Liphardt (R)

Prokop defeated Liphardt with just over 52% of the vote.

Prokop and Liphardt are looking to replace Democrat State Sen. Anna Wishart, who is term-limited after serving eight years in the legislature. Wishart won her re-election in 2020 handily, with nearly two-thirds of the vote against a Republican challenger. Prokop won the 2024 primary by around 12% over Liphardt. Prokop has raised the most money out of any candidate as of November 4, with more than $293,062 going to his campaign. Liphardt has raised more than $100,000 herself and has the support of Hilgers and Lancaster County Sheriff Terry Liphardt. Prokop is endorsed by Wishart, former Senators Ben Nelson and Bob Kerry and the Nebraska AFL-CIO. Both candidates were endorsed by the Nebraska Farm Bureau.

District 29, South Lincoln: Eliot Booster (D, inc.)

After taking part in the most expensive state legislative race in recent history in 2020, Bostar was unopposed.

Republican Holds (14):

District 1, Southeast Nebraska: Dennis Schaardt (R) vs. Robert Hallstrom (R)

Hallstrom beat Schaardt in one of the closest primaries of the evening, winning by just over 3%.

Schaardt won the May primary and had the backing of Ricketts, Flood and Hilgers, along with a significant fundraising advantage. Hallstrom is endorsed by the Nebraska Republican Party.

District 17, Northeast Nebraska: Glen Meyer (R) vs. Mike Albrecht (R)

Meyer defeated Albrecht in another close race decided by fewer than 5% of votes.

Albrecht, the husband of District 17 incumbent Joni Albrecht, won the May primary and has endorsements from his wife and the Nebraska Republican Party. Meyer has a narrow fundraising advantage and is endorsed by Ricketts and Flood.

District 19, Norfolk area: Rob Dover (R, inc.) vs. Jeanne Reigle (R)

Dover will return to the legislature after defeating Reigel by around 9%.

Reigle won the May primary and has the endorsement of the Nebraska Republican Party, while incumbent Dover, who was appointed by Ricketts to replace Flood in the legislature in 2022, has endorsements from both men.

Both candidates have raised more than $150,000 in one of the most expensive races featuring two Republicans.

District 21, Northwest Lancaster County: Beau Ballard (R, inc.) vs. Seth Derner (D)

Ballard defeated Derner by just over 11% to return to the legislature.

Ballard won his first legislative race after being appointed to his seat by Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen when Mike Hilgers was elected Attorney General. He won the three-way primary with 54% of the vote, while his two Democratic opponents, including Derner, received the other 46%. The race was the second most expensive in the state as of November 4, with both candidates raising over $215,000, though Ballard had a slight advantage. In 2020, Hilgers, a Republican, won the seat over his Democratic opponent by a 10% margin. Derner has endorsements from the Nebraska Association of Public Employees and the Nebraska AFL-CIO, while Ballard has the support of Pillen, Hilgers and the Nebraska Farm Bureau.

District 23, Wahoo and Schuyler areas: Dennis Fujan (R) vs. Jared Storm (R)

Storm defeated Fujan by nearly 10% in his first legislative general election.

Storm won the primary election with 35% of the vote, has Flood’s endorsement, and more than double the amount of money raised over his opponent. Fujan was endorsed by the Nebraska Republican Party and Congressman Don Bacon.

District 25, Southeast Lancaster County: Carolyn Bosn (R, inc.) vs. Nicki Behmer Popp (I)

Bosn defeated Behmer Popp with around 53% of the vote to hold her seat for Republicans against an independent challenger.

Bosn was appointed by Pillen in April 2023 to take the place of Republican Sen. Suzanne Geist who left her seat to focus on running for Lincoln mayor. Geist won the district in 2020 with two-thirds of the vote over a Democratic opponent. This year, Bosn faced Behmer Popp, who is independent, though Behmer Popp has been endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party. Bosn won the two-way primary by more than 13% and has the support of Geist, Pillen and the Nebraska Farm Bureau. Both candidates raised more than $195,000, though Bosn had a slight advantage.

District 31, Millard: Kathleen Kauth (R, inc.) vs. Mary Ann Folchert (D)

Kauth defeated Folchert by around 9% in her Republican-leaning district.

Kauth, who sponsored the Let Them Grow Act in 2023, won her first full-term after winning a special election in 2022 by 5% over her Democratic opponent. Kauth won the May 2024 primary with nearly 60% of the vote.

The race was one of the most expensive in the state, with both candidates raising more than $160,000. Kauth is endorsed by Bacon, while Folchert has the support of the Nebraska State Education Association and the Nebraska AFL-CIO.

District 33, Hastings area: Dan Lonowski (R) vs. Michelle Smith (D)

Lonowski won his race over Smith handily, earning more than two-thirds of votes in the election.

Lonowski won a four-way primary with 40% of the vote and has endorsements from the Nebraska Republican Party and current District 33 Sen. Steve Halloran. Smith had the advantage in fundraising and the support of the Nebraska Association of Public Employees and the Nebraska State AFL-CIO.

District 37, Kearney area: Stan Clouse (R) vs. Lana Peister (R)

Clouse defeated Peister with nearly 59% of votes.

Clouse, who won the primary with 58% of the vote, has endorsements from Ricketts, Fischer and Flood. He has also raised over three times more money than his opponent. Peister has been endorsed by the Nebraska Republican Party.

District 39, West Douglas County: Tony Sorrentino (R) vs. Allison Heimes (I)

Sorrentino defeated Heimes with just over 52% of the vote.

Both candidates ran to replace Republican Sen. Lou Ann Linehan in what was the third most expensive race in the state as of November 4. Sorrentino won the two-way primary by just over 2%, while Heimes raised slightly more money, though each candidate raised over $215,000. Heimes previously ran against Linehan in 2020 as a Democrat and lost the election by 12%.

District 41, Central Nebraska: Dan McKeon (R) vs. Ethan Clark (R)

McKeon won a narrow election by around 4% over Clark.

McKeon narrowly won the primary as well and has been endorsed by the Nebraska Republican Party. Clark has the backing of Fischer, Ricketts and Flood and raised around three times more money than his opponent.

District 43, Sandhills: Tanya Storer (R) vs. Tony Tangwall (R)

Storer won more than 60% of the vote to defeat Tangwall/

Storer won her primary election and has endorsements from Flood, Fischer and Ricketts. She also has a significant cash advantage over Tangwall. Tangwall has the support of the Nebraska Republican Party and District 43 incumbent Sen. Tom Brewer.

District 45, East Bellevue: Rita Sanders (R, inc.) vs. Sarah Centineo (D)

Sanders won her election over Centineo by a slim margin, earning just under 53% of votes.

Sanders won the primary with 59% of the vote in her Sarpy County district which includes the Offutt Air Force Base. Sanders more than doubled Centineo’s fundraising numbers and has endorsements from Fischer, Flood, Ricketts and Bacon. Centineo is backed by the state teacher’s union, the Nebraska AFL-CIO and the Nebraska Association of Public Employees. Sanders won her race for state legislature in 2020 with nearly 54% of votes.

District 47, Nebraska Panhandle: Paul Strommen (R) vs. Larry Bollinger (D)

In the most lopsided legislative race of the evening, Strommen defeated Bollinger with more than 77% of votes cast in the Republican stronghold of District 47.

Strommen received more than three quarters of votes in the May primary and had a substantial fundraising advantage. Bollinger, now running as a Democrat, had previously run unsuccessfully as a Republican in the 2020 primary for House District 3 and as a member of the Legal Marijuana NOW Party against Mike Hilgers for Attorney General.