Parts of western Nebraska now in 'exceptional' drought

Exceptional drought, the worst category of drought, has now crept into Nebraska for the first time in more than two years.

According to the latest drought monitor released Thursday by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, a small portion of the Panhandle is now experiencing exceptional drought. The last time drought was that bad in any part of the state was in early January 2024.

According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, exceptional drought can stunt crop germination, cause water systems to run low and lead to more destructive and costly wildfire seasons, something Nebraska has already seen this year, with a record number of acres burned.

The amount of extreme drought also expanded slightly over the past week, growing from a little less than 56% of the state to slightly more than 57%. All of the extreme and exceptional drought is in the western two-thirds of the state, where many areas received little or no snowfall this past winter.

On the other hand, the overall amount of drought in the state dropped slightly, with some areas in the eastern part of the state improving after several days of rain. The southeast corner of the state is now completely out of drought.

The exceptional drought covers parts of Cheyenne, Deuel, Garden and Morrill counties. Sidney, the county seat of Cheyenne County, has received only 0.86 inches of rain since the beginning of the year, well below its normal amount of about 2.5 inches to this point in the year.

Both Morrill and Garden counties have been ravaged by wildfires.

Chris Buttler, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in North Platte, said the area around North Platte has had some recent rainfall, but areas farther west where the worst drought is have missed out.

“You go further west, down around Oshkosh and, Lisco, you know, that Garden County area – they pretty much missed out on most of the precip since the beginning of the year,” Butler said.

UNL agricultural meteorologist Eric Hunt said he doesn’t even know if “bad” is the right word to describe conditions in the Panhandle right now.

“It’s downright depressing,” Hunt said. “It's almost, probably, I almost say, kind of scary.”

Hunt said he got a first-hand look last week when he visited the area with a small group from the state climate office and the Drought Mitigation Center.

"I didn't see a single blade of green grass at a pasture out there," he said.

Hunt said he thinks the agricultural sector is going to take a huge hit. There isn't likely going to be enough water to grow corn, although sugar beets and beans might do OK if there are decent rains this summer.

He said the winter wheat crop in the area has already been hit hard, and he's heard a number of horror stories.

"One farmer last week told me that he was wanting it to freeze because he wanted his wheat to be killed because it's not worth harvesting," Hunt said. He said he probably wouldn't even get 10 bushels an acre on the wheat."

"If they don't get rain in the next two or three weeks, I mean, the yields will be probably the lowest they've been in decades," he said.

The lack of precipitation has been bad enough, but it has been exacerbated by unusual warmth. Nebraska had one of its warmest and driest winters on record, and the conditions were more extreme in the western part of the state.

“Going back to last winter, the reason this drought expansion has been pretty aggressive is the fact that we were so warm all winter,” Buttler said. “A lot of the soils and the ground didn't even freeze out here this winter. So when that happens, and you don't have any precip, and you're above normal, that soil profile is just getting dried out the whole time.”

Hunt agreed, saying warm late falls and early winters combined with a lack of snow cover leaves bare ground that can't hold as much moisture.

Going forward, the picture is mixed. The National Weather Service is forecasting wetter-than-normal conditions over the next month, but over the next three months, the pattern over much of the state is drier than normal.

Hunt, for his part, doesn't see any short-term relief. He's predicting drier-than-normal conditions through at least the first half of May.