New Census Estimates: Nebraska Growth Steady, Positive For Keeping Three House Seats in 2020

The U.S. Census Bureau released important new state population estimates this morning, figures that provide insight into Nebraska's ability to retain three seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2020.

Figures and some analysis, from census expert David Drozd, research coordinator for the Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Nebraska at Omaha:

Nebraska's Population Now Nearly 1.9 Million

DROZD: "The Census Bureau estimates the population of Nebraska as of July 1, 2015 to be 1,896,190, so the state nearly hit the 1.9 million mark (and it does so with rounding). This is an increase of 13,210 from the July 1, 2014 estimate, or an increase of 0.70 percent. Nebraska’s most current annual growth is very similar to gains seen in the past several years; for example, the increase in the prior year from 2013 to 14 was 13,680 persons or 0.73 percent. Nebraska has now gained population for 28 straight years, with the last annual population loss occurring in 1987, amid the "farm crisis.'"

Nebraska Percentage Population Change Better than Usual

DROZD: "Nebraska’s percentage change in population in the latest year ranked 21st best among all states. Nebraska even achieved a rare feat (at least in recent years) of growing at a faster clip than neighboring South Dakota, which increased by 0.61 percent in the latest year, ranking 23rd highest. These improvements occurred even as Nebraska’s annual growth rate declined slightly versus last year. This 21^st best growth rate ranking is the best one that I can remember in my over 10 years of working with such data."

Nebraska in Good Position to Keep Three House Seats

DROZD: "In an analysis to evaluate the likelihood for Nebraska to hold or lose one of its current three Congressional seats, it appears Nebraska is in relatively good position to keep all three in the 2020 census. I applied 6 different sets of growth rates to the 2015 population estimates to come up with populations in 2020 for all states. I then ran these figures through the “apportionment calculator” which replicates the way the apportionment has been done the last several decades. (This calculation is subject to Congressional oversight and approval and could be changed). In none of these six scenarios does Nebraska’s 3rd seat rank worse than the 431st position, with the last seat overall being number 435 (and the seat “first out” or missing the cutoff being number 436). So Nebraska likely has some room to spare for population growth to slow before it would lose a seat in the 2020 calculation."