Nebraska's winter wheat production could hit historic low this year

Nebraska’s winter wheat crop is looking slightly better than it did a month ago, but it’s still on track to be one of the worst in history.

According to the latest crop progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the state’s farmers were projected to harvest about 580,000 acres this year, with a projected yield of 29 bushels per acre. That’s up from the 28-bushel-per-acre estimate in June, but it’s considerably lower than last year’s 47 bushels per acre, when farmers harvested about 805,000 acres.

If the 580,000-acre harvest estimate proves true, it would be the smallest ever, according to USDA data going back nearly 120 years, just beating out a 600,000-acre harvest in 1917.

Total production across is estimated to be about 16.8 million bushels, less than half of the 37.8 million bushels produced last year and down nearly 65% compared with 2024.

About a quarter of the state’s crop has been harvested so far, which is a little bit ahead of schedule.

Nebraska Wheat Board Executive Director Royce Schaneman said in a radio interview earlier this month that early harvest reports he's received are “not great.”

Most of the state’s winter wheat crop is grown in western Nebraska, which has been beset by a historic drought. Crops have also been hurt by freezes earlier in the growing season and by disease. Wheat disease surveys conducted in mid-June found widespread evidence of leaf rust, a fungal disease.

More than one-third of Nebraska wheat growers are planning to abandon their crop this year, which is more than double the yearly average. The crop has been rated at 93% poor or very poor.

Nationally, the winter wheat crop is forecast to be 29% lower than last year. Other states that are likely to see large declines compared with last year are Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

Mary Eisenzimmer, vice chairwoman of the Nebraska Wheat Board, told Harvest Public Media recently that the poor wheat crop this year could lead to higher prices for flour and other products.

“I hope we’re not going to be that short on supply this year that you’re going to see that come in the market, but that could be a real potential,” Eisenzimmer said.