Listen To This Story
The state has seen a rise in independent candidates over the past several years. UNL Political Science Professor Kevin Smith talked with Nebraska Public Media's Grant Winterer about their impact on Nebraska elections.
Grant Winterer: Historically speaking, have we seen anything like the current amount of independent candidates that are running for office in these past few cycles?
Kevin Smith: I'm not sure that there's a ton of data on that, at least historically speaking, that I've seen. There have always been independent candidates running at every level of office in Nebraska kind of scattered through, but impressionistically, I think that there are probably more people willing to make a run as an independent now than there have been in the past.
Winterer: How does Nebraska compare to other states in the region as far as nonpartisan or independent candidates?
Smith: Independent candidates, at least successful ones, are fairly rare across the board. You get an Angus King in Maine, Bernie Sanders is perhaps the most famous Independent there is.
But these are very much exceptions, not the rule. Some states will go in cycles, where you see more activity by independents making a serious bid for office, but generally speaking, it doesn’t matter what state. In an election for partisan office, there tend to be more fringe candidates than serious contenders for a seat.
Winterer: What are some of the main forces behind some of these candidates deciding to run as independents? Is it ideological differences, or general frustration with party strategy?
Smith: I think one of the big reasons why people run for office outside the traditional system is a frustration with the Republican and Democratic parties. That can come from a variety of places.
There are a number of people on the right who think the Republican Party is too liberal, and a number of people on the left who think the Democratic Party is too conservative.
There are also a number of people who feel particularly politically homeless. So, if you have the right motivation, an independent candidacy can be a genuine attempt to give those politically homeless people a voice and a home.
Winterer: Do Nebraska voters seem to be more willing to support independent candidates or are we still looking at them as longer shots to win?
Smith: I think we’re still looking at them as long shot candidates, but there’s a big difference in Nebraska as opposed to other states, and that difference is Dan Osborn.
Even though he lost against Deb Fischer, he ran a very successful independent, insurgent, outside the party structure campaign, and came within a handful of percentage points against a sitting United States Senator who has a rock-solid conservative record in a ruby red state. Something like that tends to get people’s attention. “If Dan Osborn can blaze a trail, maybe I can follow it.”
Winterer: Does the rise of these candidates represent a growth in democratic voices or a weakening of the two-party system?
Smith: I’m not sure we’re at the point where I’d consider it a weakening of the two-party system because it’s rare that these third party candidates are successful.
I would view it as a cry for a little more centrism from both major parties. It’s no secret that there are an awful lot of citizens in Nebraska and around the country who are frustrated with both major parties right now and their inability to get along and get things done.
Winterer: Based on the current trends we’ve seen, do we expect more independent candidates in the future, or do we expect the field to revert back to the two major parties?
Smith: If I had to bet, I’d say it’s going to level out, but you never know. Let’s say you get Dan Osborn, even if he doesn’t win, coming close in back-to-back elections, that certainly could encourage more people to mount those independent candidacies.
Winterer: What would need to change for those third party candidates to become truly competitive in state and nationwide elections?
Smith: Certainly in Nebraska, it’s got to be a shift in party registrations. It’s no secret that outside Omaha and Lincoln, the state’s very red, very Republican-leaning. Party registration’s about 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans, and those Republicans tend to be pretty loyal voters.
It’s tough regardless of whether you’re a Democrat, Independent, or other third-party candidate. You've got the normal problems of the candidate out of power: no name recognition, attracting money and endorsements. On top of that, though, you’ve got to convince people to vote for you, and that’s tough.