When Jayden Speed and Nate Ostdiek launched their campaigns for the Nebraska Legislature, they argued the decades-wide age gap between lawmakers and constituents needed to close. Tuesday's primary results, while still unofficial and have yet to be certified, suggest voters weren't moved by their message.
Speed, 21, finished with just 17% of the vote in Legislative District 2 in Cass County. He was eliminated from the race by Republican Dean Helmick, 63, and Democrat Caitlin Knutson, 40, who garnered the most votes to continue onto the general election.
Ostdiek, 23, wasn’t in a competitive race in the primary election. He and Democrat Patrick Leahy, 43, automatically moved onto the general election since they were the only two candidates. But Leahy took home 60% of the vote.
University of Nebraska-Lincoln political scientist Kevin Smith said the results weren't entirely surprising, though he cautioned against drawing conclusions from a pair of races where statewide turnout was lower.
"Every race is in some way its own story. But I think if we were to draw that sort of general inference, I think the big one is experience matters," Smith said. "If you are a young candidate, you haven't had a lot of time to build a political network or political experience."
The candidates who beat Speed in LD-2 fit the profile Smith described. Helmick is a U.S. Air Force veteran with a master's degree in public administration and bachelor's degrees in history, political science and professional aeronautics. Knutson spent 15 years as a special education teacher before stepping back to raise her family and holds a bachelor's degree in history and a master's degree in education.
In Omaha's LD-6, Leahy brought a similarly established resume. The Democrat is CEO of Firstar Fiber and a U.S. Army Reserve officer and previously served eight years on the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District Board. He holds bachelor's degrees in political science and economics from the University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Smith said the experience gap isn't insurmountable for a less-established candidate, but added that pretending it isn't an obstacle would be naive.
"You haven't met a payroll; you haven't raised a family; you haven't served in the military," he said. "It's not like those things are decisive, but they can be important in forming an impression of a candidate."
Smith said in tighter races, experience often acts as a tiebreaker at the ballot box. When voters are drawn to two candidates with similar policy positions, the more mature and established option tends to advance.
"If you're a 40-year-old and you're politically paying attention ... you kind of like both of their policy stances. But one seems to be more mature and experienced, and one seems to be a little more raw and inexperienced — that could make a difference," Smith said.
Speed partially agreed that credibility was a factor, but argued money was the more decisive obstacle. His campaign relied on small-dollar, grassroots donations while opponents had access to more resources for mailers, texts and calls. Both candidates leaned on social media to reach a more diverse, younger audience.
"We were bringing in $10, $20 at a time from everyday people," Speed said. "We didn't have big checks from the Ricketts family or many PACs."
Speed also said one of his main challenges was running while enrolled as a full-time college student in Washington, D.C., from which he will graduate this week.
"Running as a full-time college student has been logistically challenging," he said. "In a future race, if I were to run again, having the ability to not be going to school and trying to campaign and trying to knock doors will be more helpful next time."
Speed said the most troubling result from Tuesday wasn't his vote count but the low turnout across the state.
"What I think was the most disappointing result of last night was not the vote count in any race or the outcome of any race," he said. "It was the fact that turnout was so low statewide."
Despite the loss, Speed said he isn't discouraging other young people from running.
"I don't want young people to be discouraged from running in the future because they think you have to be retired and wealthy and at least 40-something to run for office," he said.
Ostdiek remained optimistic despite losing the primary vote by 20 points, calling Tuesday a trial run for what his campaign can build heading into November.
"I feel incredibly motivated going into this next one," Ostdiek said. "We saw a proof of concept, and I think we can really expand on it in a good way going into the general."
He pointed to a late surge in vote totals as evidence of momentum, saying his campaign received 52% of the vote in the final batch of ballots counted Tuesday night. Ostdiek also noted he was running against a candidate who had previously held elected office in the district, and said simply getting his name out was a victory in itself.
"Our name I.D. went from absolutely nothing to something," Ostdiek said. "I think social media was a huge role in getting the over 3,000 votes that we got in raw magnitude. I think that this 40% that we've gotten is our floor, and we really will only be going up from here."
Smith was measured about whether a generational shift is coming to Nebraska politics – with or without Ostdiek's November bid.
"I don't get the sense that there's this huge cohort of Gen Zers who are about to step in and really have a lot of influence in state politics," Smith said. "You can't get experience without time. That's just an unbreakable iron law."
Even with Speed’s loss, he wasn't ready to give up a career in politics in Nebraska.
"I'm not going anywhere," he said. "My commitment to our community and our state continues."