In an article published by the Washington Post, the National Weather Service reported the Great Plains is the region with least reliable long-term weather forecasts.
In Nebraska, a majority of the state shouldn’t depend on a prediction more than two days in advance, the article stated. For places like North Platte and Grand Island, forecasts for more than a day ahead are inaccurate.
Adam Houston, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said there are many factors for why the state’s weather has so much variability.
The most predictable influence is the sun, he said. When the sun is up, the temperature is higher. When the sun is low, the temperature is, too.
But Nebraska is a landlocked state. There’s no large body of water to help predict the next days’ conditions.
“What you would expect is that you have a bigger swing in temperature on a day-to-day basis over continental locations,” Houston said. “That is, locations that are far away from big bodies of water.”
Changes in temperature can also be attributed to the movement of masses of air that push cold or warm air. But, as many Nebraskans are probably familiar with, these temperature changes aren’t always gradual. The changes are usually associated with fronts.
Whether it’s predicting temperatures or the storm season accurately, Houston said meteorologists are constantly learning about weather phenomena such as tornados to better calculate what will happen next.
Even if a forecast for next week won’t be completely accurate, Houston said he hopes people check conditions as often as possible to stay up to date.
“There is an intrinsic uncertainty in the forecast, and you have to keep updating as you go,” he said. The best thing to do is just to keep updated.”
Whether it’s predicting temperatures or the storm season accurately, Houston said meteorologists are constantly learning about weather phenomena such as tornadoes to better calculate what will happen next.