Nebraska farmers could see record profits this year

Nebraska’s farm income is forecast to hit nearly $10 billion this year, despite potential higher costs for inputs such as diesel fuel and fertilizer.

But the news is not as good as it sounds because the increase will once again be driven by an increase in government payments.

According to the latest projections from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the University of Missouri, the state’s net farm income should jump 12% in 2026, to an all-time high of $9.96 billion. That would shatter the previous record of $9.3 billion in 2023.

A big driver of the increase will again be government payments, which are projected to jump 71% from last year to almost $3 billion. The report said most of that will come in the form of commodity program payments under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to compensate farmers for losses due to tariffs.

But Nebraska agricultural producers also will benefit from strong prices, the report says.

Total livestock receipts in Nebraska are projected to increase by $708 million, or 3%, to $23.55 billion in 2026. Cattle receipts, which account for 91% of Nebraska livestock receipts, are projected to increase by $1.09 billion, or 5%, to $21.52 billion, due to continued high cattle prices driven by tight supplies and stable marketings of heavier cattle, according to the report.

Crop prices, which have been depressed for three years, are forecast to rebound this year, leading to an increase in receipts for both corn and soybeans.

Corn receipts are projected to increase by $374 million, or 5%, to $7.86 billion, supported by higher prices and inventory sales from a record 2025 crop. Soybean receipts are projected to increase by $116 million, or 4%, to $3.08 billion. Those two crops make up 90% of all crop receipts in Nebraska.

“The crop side of the outlook is important because it marks a positive change from the past few years,” Brad Lubben, an agricultural policy specialist at UNL, said in a news release.

However, Lubben noted that producers will likely face record expenses this year.

“That does not mean margins suddenly become easy, especially with fuel, fertilizer and other costs still elevated, but it does point to some improvement in the revenue picture for crop producers,” he said.

The price of urea, a major nitrogen-based fertilizer, is sitting a little under $600 a ton right now, down from an April high of nearly $700 a ton but more than $100 higher than it was at this time last year. Diesel fuel as of Friday averaged about $4.95 a gallon in Nebraska, only about 40 cents below the all-time high and about $1.65 a gallon higher than at this time last year.

The report said that Nebraska is somewhat of an outlier, with many projections showing stable or slightly lower farm income this year in the U.S. as a whole.

Many rural areas are struggling, as evidenced by the April Rural Mainstreet Index produced by Creighton University.

It showed that 54.2% of rural bank CEOs reported their local economy is in a recession, with another 8.3% saying they believe they are entering one.

“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community,” said Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss

Goss also said that the $12 billion in government payments given out so far this year have About 62.5% of bank CEOs said the money has had little to no impact on their local economy. Goss said the aid was not enough to replace the income and cash flow farmers have lost.

Another potential complication is drought. More than half of Nebraska is in severe drought or worse, including many of the state’s largest corn-and soybean-producing areas.

Drought conditions that lower yields could blunt the effect of higher crop prices.

The report predicts Nebraska farm income to decrease by $1.22 billion, or 12%, to $8.74 billion in 2027. That’s primarily driven by a projected $1.32 billion reduction in government payments. However, the same report last year predicted a drop in farm income this year due to a drop in government payments.