Missing as little as 10% of school can impact test scores and the odds of attending college, study finds

Students who are chronically absent, defined as missing 10% or more of school, receive lower test scores and are less likely to attend college, according to a new data report from the Nebraska Statewide Workforce and Educational Reporting System (NSWERS).

Jay Jeffries, a post-doctoral research scientist for NSWERS, said there was a sharp increase of chronic absenteeism when the COVID-19 pandemic closed down in-person learning.

“Chronic absenteeism in Nebraska surged from 10% pre-pandemic to over 23% during COVID-19, and it's remained around 20% since then,” Jeffries said. “It's not showing a rebound back to pre-pandemic levels.”

Hedy Chang, executive director for national organization Attendance Works, said this isn’t just a Nebraska problem. Schools nationwide have been struggling with attendance rates since the pandemic, especially schools that lost connection with their students. Chang said there is upcoming research from Chicago that shows how helpful those connections between school staff and students are on attendance rates.

“Schools actually need to invest in it. They have to create the structures for doing that,” Chang said. “Some schools had those structures before the pandemic. They were already intentional about it, so then, when they reopened, that intentionality helped. Other schools, I think they weren't prepared. They kind of took for granted that these things would be in place, but you actually have to invest in them to make them happen.”

Chang said those connections are one reason why students may be missing school. Other reasons include physical and mental health, transportation and feeling safe at school.

Nebraska Department of Education officials have been aware of chronic absenteeism increasing since the pandemic. Commissioner Brian Maher signed on to an Attendance Works challenge to reduce chronic absenteeism by 50% in the next five years. The State Board of Education is also considering a strategic plan that includes improving attendance.

Chang said she thinks Nebraska’s commitment to improving attendance and being public about data is a great step.

“It's really important to have persistence over time on it,” she said. “Building relationships, reestablishing trust between schools and kids, helping to organize partners to address barriers like health or neighborhood safety — those aren't things that happen overnight. We have to all be prepared to invest in the long term.”

Shirley Vargas, NDE school transformation officer, said the state has been focusing on attendance rates for years.

“We've spent some time since — I don't know how many years now, over seven or so years — really trying to understand, what does chronic absenteeism mean?" she asked. "What are we noticing around trends across a variety of grade levels?”

Students who are chronically absent are two-and-a-half times less likely to enroll at a post-secondary institution, according to NSWERS. They are also less likely to be proficient on statewide tests in math, science and English language arts, sometimes at half the rate compared to a student who isn’t chronically absent, depending on the grade level.

“We know that students have to be present if we're going to expect them not only to learn but to master grade level content and then be able to apply it to a variety of different assessments,” Vargas said.

Vargas said the amount of students chronically absent is high in kindergarten, decreases a bit in elementary school and then sharply increases going into high school and through senior year. The NSWERS report shows that trend is still the case.

Indigenous students and students of color see higher rates of chronic absenteeism — about 47% and almost 40% respectively, according to NSWERS data. Students in special education and English language learners are also more likely to be chronically absent than students not in those programs.

Vargas said it’s important for schools to figure out the root cause of chronic absenteeism in their buildings so they are better equipped to help.

“Whereas, I talk about transportation or health needs broadly, my specific situation in my community might be so unique that it's just slightly nuanced as compared to one in a neighboring district,” Vargas said. “What we've seen for students of color, students with disabilities, English learners, is that those needs vary.”

Vargas added that it’s important for districts to intervene early when a student starts missing school to figure out what they need.

“You want to make sure that we're actively engaging with students that are missing as early as three to five days,” she said. “That makes a significant impact on the student’s academic attainment, as if we were to wait to send a letter in day 10.”

The State Board of Education will vote on a final draft of the strategic plan at the December meeting that includes a goal of reducing chronic absenteeism by half over the next five years.