A banner year for Nebraska crop farmers could be washed by tariff turmoil

As Nebraska farmers begin harvesting this autumn’s corn and soybeans, they’re preparing to take most of the crop straight to storage, rather than hitting the market or nearby farmer co-ops.

The double whammy of sagging corn prices and the United States’ loss of its primary soybean buyer, China, is forcing farmers to stare down the barrel of another year of projected financial loss.

“I’m getting calls from folks that are – you would think would be – in pretty good financial positions, and they’re saying, ‘We just can’t continue,’” said Nebraska Farmers Union President John Hansen.

Hansen said projections from the United States Department of Agriculture show the season average market prices for corn to land around $3.90 a bushel. But he said the price Nebraskans are selling at right now is sitting much lower at around $3.30. Soybeans are expected to sell around $10.10 a bushel this season. But while the estimated cost it takes to produce each crop is much higher – $4.80 and $11.80 respectively – farmers aren’t expected to reap much money, if any, from what they sowed earlier this year.

“Farmers that are calling my office are saying, ‘We farm 5,000 acres. We’re good operators. We do a lot of our own repair work. We don’t buy new every year, and we’re $150 upside down an acre,’” Hansen said. “That’s $750,000 in the hole this year.”

Hansen, who’s been at the Nebraska Farmers Union helm since 1990 and farmed through the historic farm crisis in the 1980s, compared today’s $3.90 price to the price he got for a bushel of corn when he first started selling in 1973: $3.30.

Lower commodity prices and sky-high input costs have been the norm for the last few years. Earlier this year, the Rural Response Hotline reported an increase in calls from distressed farmers in the red from last year’s harvest.

But Hansen said farmers will be pushing the limits of what financial shortfalls can be absorbed this year, saying the warning signs are eerily similar to those seen leading up to the 1980s farm crisis.

“We are, unfortunately, in a situation where we’ve seen multiple years of low commodity prices, and because of that, we’re not in a good position to absorb another year,” Hansen said. “We’ve already seen a lot – too many producers – having to borrow from their equity in order to turn that into cash to be able to cover their cash flow shortfalls.”

Hansen said some banks will be tightening their belts after yet another year of freefall in crop prices.

“You can only eat into equity so long before your banker says, ‘That’s enough of that,’ and your financial statement starts going the wrong direction.”

A potential record corn harvest straight to storage bins

At the beginning of the year, when much of the state was in some level of drought, Nebraska farmers were bracing for worsening weather and drought to hamper another harvest. But with a sudden mid-summer turnaround in precipitation, now farmers are expected to pull in a record crop.

The USDA projects Nebraska producers to net 1.93 billion corn bushels – up 7% from last year’s production. The University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s CropWatch expects it to be a record year for Nebraska, if producers hit the mark.

The state’s rainy rebound this summer, though, has led to some disease and pest issues in some parts of the corn belt, especially in southeast Nebraska where Southern rust, a fungal disease that can cause significant yield losses, has attacked some corn fields. Whether those crops pull through has yet to be seen, but most of the state’s corn crop is either in fair, good or excellent condition.

But farmers aren’t expecting to see any sales – no matter how great their crop is – to some of Nebraska’s top foreign markets, primarily China, due to trade disputes and negotiations. The country is now leaning more on U.S. competitors like Brazil to fill its corn and soybean needs.

That could deal another blow to Nebraska producers, whose biggest buyer of soybeans is China, according to the Nebraska Department of Agriculture. Of the $2.5 billion in Nebraska’s soybean exports in 2023, China spent nearly $1 billion. The second-biggest buyer – the European Union – doesn’t even come close, with $247 million in soybean purchases that year.

Foreseeing the tariff disputes earlier this year, farmers across the country planted about 4% less in soybeans compared to last year, according to federal data. Nebraska farmers accounted for one of the largest declines in soybean plantings at 6% fewer soybean plantings compared to 2024.

China is also one of Nebraska’s biggest corn consumers, buying nearly $182 million of Nebraska corn in 2023. The state relies on exporting 29% of its corn yields.

Nebraska Farm Bureau President Mark McHargue said it would take about 11 smaller trade agreements with other countries to replace what China was purchasing from Nebraska farmers.

“China is just a really, really big market,” McHargue said. “So, there has to be a lot of new markets opened up to make up for that. I think there will be a lot of farmers that will be trying to store as much as they can, just looking for developments in the trade agreement. You’ll probably see a lot of grain piles around as well.”

But McHargue said some crops will be sold off – albeit at very low prices – so farmers can get by in the meantime.

“There’s going to be probably some need to get some crops sold just for cash flow, and that might happen at a pretty low price, because it appears that we’re going to have some low harvest prices right now,” McHargue said. “That is a bummer because if you have to sell to free up money for paying the bills.”

‘Big Beautiful’ boost in lieu of Farm Bill updates

Both McHargue and Hansen said they’re working with Nebraska’s federal delegation and other national groups to provide more economic assistance for crop farmers dealing with high piles of leftover grain from this year’s harvest.

“The conversations around trade and our tariff conversations – that’s just been disruptive,” McHargue said. “I’m not saying that we’re on the wrong path. It’s just that we are in the middle of this strategy right now. We have tariffs that have raised the cost of our inputs, yet we do have some trade deals that are being talked about. Any assistance that we potentially would get from the USDA would be just taking care of the farmer in this weird middle ground, getting from point A to point B.”

Hansen said farmers aren’t necessarily itching to receive federal relief, but it’s needed given the sluggish work on the Farm Bill, which originally expired in 2023. Nebraska Congressman Mike Flood said this month that December is the “best case scenario” for any movement on the Farm Bill, despite a renewed round of pleas from ag leaders. Hansen said he’d like lawmakers to dedicate serious time and work on crafting “realistic farm policy.”

“That’s the discussion that we should be having right now,” Hansen said. “We should be having a robust discussion about what works, what doesn’t work, what we need to change. It’s disappointing that we’re not really having that discussion.”

In lieu of passing an updated Farm Bill, ag groups received a stronger economic safety net in President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed this summer. While axing costs for food assistance programs such as SNAP, lawmakers dedicated additional support for crop insurance programs, updated the “price floors” for commodity crops and increased payment rates under the two main crop subsidy safety net programs, Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage.

Some financially distressed farmers received $300 million in federal relief at the end of 2024 through President Joe Biden’s final wave of payments from the Inflation Reduction Act. Farmers received those payments in early 2025.

Brad Lubben, a University of Nebraska-Lincoln agricultural policy specialist, said there will be a significant gap between assistance received earlier this year and payouts expected next year from the Big Beautiful Bill, since calculations for assistance aren’t made until the marketing year is done.

“The safety net for the 2025 crop doesn’t actually pay out until October of 2026,” Lubben said. “That’s the way the program works. In the middle of that gap, producers are struggling with the continued economic concerns of lower prices, high input costs and the uncertainty in the marketplace for exports and trade opportunities.”

Lubben said the overall farm outlook is strong, given record cattle prices and recent federal farming assistance, but under the cover of a strong cattle market, continues to lie a darkening crop outlook for the third year in a row.

“There are a number of factors that are driving farmer concerns, heightening the financial challenges, and leaving producer groups to ask for something to help fill that gap from now until next fall when the safety net really begins to kick in,” Lubben said.